Strategy Comparison

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V1 hit_20_5 V1 hit_30_5 V2 Profitable
Entry ModelLightGBM 107 treesLightGBM 107 treesLightGBM 174 trees
Exit ModelLightGBM 51 treesLightGBM 51 treesNone (MomTrail)
Profit Target+20%+30%No cap
Stop Loss-10%-10%-10%
Trail Activation+10% return+10% return+3% profit + vel drop
Trail Gap5% from peak5% from peak2% from peak
Trail TriggerFixed ratchetFixed ratchet30s vel < -1%
MomTrail Min ProfitN/A (fixed trail)N/A (fixed trail)3%
Velocity WindowN/AN/A30 seconds
Velocity ThresholdN/AN/A-1%
D05 Threshold0.35100.26690.6946
Contracts111
Entry Features606059
Timeout60 min60 min60 min
Cooldown120s post-stop120s post-stop120s post-stop
Order TypeLimit BTO / Mkt STCSameSame
Entry Slip Cap5% above midSameSame
Price Filter$1.00 - $4.99SameSame
Moneyness0.90 - 1.10SameSame
Research WR45.5%35.7%62.2%
Research Sharpe0.658 10.346 11.034 2
235-day Total PnL$+65,276 combined 3+585.67% 4
Methodology Notes
1 V1 Sharpe — 36-day out-of-sample test set only. Daily P&L Sharpe (mean/std of daily $PnL). TRAIL_15_8 exit strategy (lock +8% floor at +15% return).
2 V2 Sharpe — Full 235-day backtest. Daily P&L Sharpe with compounding equity sim. MomTrail exit (velocity-aware trailing stop, no profit cap).
3 V1 PnL ($65,276) — 235 days, includes in-sample data (directionally useful, not pure OOS). Flat 1 contract per trade, $1.30 RT commission. Combined hit_20_5 + hit_30_5, $1.00-$4.99 price range, D05 conviction. Dollar sum, no compounding.
4 V2 PnL (%) — 235 days, full backtest. $15K starting capital, 10% of $5K risk capital per trade (dynamic contract sizing), $1.30 RT commission. Compounding equity — account grows/shrinks with each trade. % return = (final equity − $15K) / $15K.
V1 and V2 PnL numbers are not directly comparable due to different sizing, compounding, and exit methodologies.